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be a reasonable ground for expecting that in that case no coincidence would occur. But the matter is reversed when a great multitude of cases are in question. The probable result then is that there will be coincidences. This may easily be illustrated by reference to a question of ordinary probabilities. Suppose there is a lottery with a thousand tickets and but one prize. Then it is exceedingly unlikely that any particular ticket-holder will obtain the prize--the odds are, in fact, 999 to 1 against him. But suppose he had one ticket in each of a million different lotteries all giving the same
chance of success. Then it would not be surprising for him to draw a prize; on the contrary, it would be a most remarkable coincidence if he did not draw one. The same event--the drawing of a prize--which in one case must be regarded as highly improbable, becomes in the other ease highly probable. So it is with coincidences which appear utterly improbable. It would be a most wonderful thing if such coincidences did not occur, and occur pretty frequently, in the experience of every man, since the opportunities for their occurrence enormously outnumber the chances against the occurrence of any particular instance.
We may reason in like manner as to superstitions. Or rather, it is to be noted that the coincidences on which superstitions are commonly based are in many instances not even remarkable. Misfortunes are not so uncommon, for instance, that the occurrence of a disaster of some sort after the spilling of salt at table can be regarded as surprising. If three or four persons, who are discussing the particular superstition relating to salt-cellars, can cite instances of an apparent connection between a misfortune and the contact of salt with a table-cloth, the circumstance is in no sense to be wondered at; it would be much more remarkable if the contrary were the case. There is scarcely a superstition of the commoner sort which is not in like manner based, not on some remarkable coincidence, but on the occasional occurrence of quite common coincidences. It may be said, indeed, of the facts on which nearly all the vulgar superstitions have been
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