Calculating the Odds : Gambling and Betting to Win

How To Calculate the Odds

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g Table, I quote them, 'as the axioms of a professional gambler and cheat.' Thus we might expect that, however unsatisfactory to men of honest mind, they




would at least savor of a certain sort of wisdom. Yet these axioms, the fruit of long study directed by self- interest, are all utterly untrustworthy.

Every game of chance,' says this authority, 'presents two kinds of chances that are very distinct-namely, those relating to the person interested, that is the player; and those inherent in the combinations of the game.' That is, we are to distinguish between the chances proper to the game, and those depending on the luck of the player. Proceeding to consider the chances proper to the game itself, our friendly cheat sums them all up in two rules. First :--'Though chance can bring into the game all possible combinations, there are never- the less certain limits at which it seems to stop: such, for instance, as a certain number turning up ten times in succession at roulette; this is possible, but it has never happened.' Secondly :--' In a game of chance, the oftener the same combination has occurred in succession, the nearer we are to the certainty that it will not recur at the next cast or turn up. This is the most elementary of the theories on probabilities; it is termed the maturity of the chances' (and he might have added that the belief in this elementary theory had ruined thousands). 'Hence,' he proceeds, 'a player must come to the table not only "in luck," but he must not risk his money except at the instant prescribed by the rules of the maturity of the chances.' Then follow the precepts for personal conduct :--'For gaming prefer roulette, because it presents several ways of staking your money--which permits the study of several. A


 

 

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