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pair of dice ten successive times. The wager was accepted (though it was egregiously unfair), and strange to say his opponent threw 'seven' nine times running. At this point Mr. Ogden offered 470 guineas to be off the bet. But his opponent declined (though the price offered was far beyond the real value of his
chance). He cast yet once more, and threw ' nine,' so that Mr. Ogden won his guinea.
Now here we have an instance of a most remarkable series of throws, the like of which has never been recorded before or since. Before those throws had been made, it might have been asserted that the throwing of nine successive 'sevens' with a pair of dice was a circumstance which chance could never bring about, for experience was as much against such an event as it would seem to be against the turning up of a certain number ten successive times at roulette. Yet experience now shows that the thing is possible; and if we are to limit the action of chance, we must assert that the throwing of ' seven' ten times in succession is an event which will never happen. Yet such a conclusion obviously rests on as unstable a basis as the former, of which experience has disposed. Observe, however, how the two gamblers viewed this very eventuality. Nine successive 'sevens' had been thrown; and if there were any truth in the theory that the power of chance was limited, it might have been regarded as all but certain that the next throw would not be a 'seven.' But a run of bad fortune had so shaken Mr. Ogden's faith in his luck (as well as in the theory of the ' maturity of the chances ') that he was ready to pay 470 guineas (nearly thrice the mathematical value of his opponent's chance) in order to save his endangered thousand; and so confident was his opponent that the run of luck would continue that he declined this very favorable offer. Experience had
in fact shown both the players, that although 'sevens' could not be thrown for ever, yet there was no saying when the throw would change. Both reasoned probably that as an eighth throw had followed seven successive throws of seven' (a wonderful chance), and as a ninth had followed eight successive throws (an unprecedented event), a tenth might well follow the nine (though hitherto no such series of throws had ever been heard of). They were forced as it were by the run of events to reason' justly as to the possibility of a tenth throw of 'seven'--nay, to exaggerate that possibility into probability; and it appears from the narrative that the strange series of throws quite checked the betting propensities of the bystanders, and that not one was led to lay the wager (which according to ordinary gambling superstitions would have been a safe one) that the tenth throw would not give ' seven.'
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