Calculating the Odds : Gambling and Betting to Win

How To Calculate the Odds

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hen you are entitled to four sovereigns), you again repeat it, until at last he wins the toss. Then you are 'quits,' and can be happy again.

The system of winning money corresponds to this safe system of getting rid of money which has been uncomfortably won. Observe that if you only go on long enough with the double-or-quits method, as above, you are sure to get rid of your sovereign; for your friend cannot go on losing for ever. He might, indeed, lose nine or ten times running, when he would owe you 512/; or 1,024l.; and if he then lost heart, while yet he regarded his loss, like his first wager, as a debt of honor from which you could not release him, matters would be rather awkward. If he lost twenty times he would owe you a million, which would be more awkward still; except that, having gone so far, he could not make matters worse by going s little farther; and in a few more tossings you would get. rid of your millions as completely as Of the sovereign first won. Still, speaking




generally, this double-or-quits method is a sure and easy way of clearing such scores. But it may be reversed and become a pretty sure and easy way of making money.

Suppose a man, whom we will call A, to wager with another, 13, one sovereign on a tossing (say). If he wins, he gains a sovereign. Suppose, however, he loses his sovereign. Then let him make a new wager of two sovereigns. If he wins, he is the gainer of one sovereign in all: if he loses, he has lost three in all. In the latter case let him make a new wager, of four sovereigns. If he wins, he gains one sovereign; if he loses, he has lost seven in all. In this last case let him wager eight sovereigns. Then, if he wins, he has gained one sovereign, and if he loses he has lost fifteen. Wagering sixteen sovereigns in the latter case, he gains one in all if he wins, and has lost thirty-one in all if he loses.' So he goes on (supposing him to lose each time) doubling his wager continually, until at last he wins. Then he has gained one sovereign. He can now repeat the process, gaining each time a sovereign whenever he wins a tossing. And manifestly in this way A can most surely and safely win every sovereign B has. Yet every wager has been a perfectly fair one. We seem, then, to see our way to a safe way of making any quantity of money. B, of course, would not allow this sort of wagering to go on very long. But the bankers of a gambling establishment undertake to accept any wagers which may be offered, on the system of their game, whether rouge-et-noir, roulette, or what not,


 

 

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