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sh thing to pay 11. for one of ten tickets in a lottery where the single prize was only worth 9l. Yet some of the foolish fellows
who did this must win the prize, gaining 81. by the venture. If many others were encouraged to repeat such a venture, or if he repeated it himself (inferring from his success that he was born under a lucky star), they and he would have reason to repent. He might, indeed, be lucky yet again; and perhaps more than once. But the more he won in that way, the more he would trust in his good luck; and in the long run he would be sure to lose, if all his ventures were of the same foolish kind as the first.
We see, however, that the foolish bettor in any given case is by no means certain to lose. Nor is the crafty bettor who takes advantage of him at all sure to win. A man might steal 21. or 3l. from the pool, after making up 91. out of the 10l., in the case I have imagined, and yet lose, because his opponent might be fortunate enough to draw the single marked ticket, and so win the 71. or 81. left in the pool.
In reality, however, though quite possibly some among the foolish bettors not only win money but even keep what they win, refraining from trying their luck afresh, it must not be supposed that the fraudulent bettor exposes himself to the risk of loss in the long run. He plays a safe game. Every one of his bets is a partial swindle; yet in each he runs the risk of loss. His entire series of bets is a complete swindle, in which he runs no risk whatever of loss, but insures a certain gain. Let us see how this is done.
Suppose there are two horses in a race, A and B,
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