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. If he does not, and knows he does not, he simply lies in claiming to know more than he does. In claiming to be knowing, he really claims to be dishonest and (which is not quite the same thing) dishonorable; and probably his claim is just.
To turn, however, to betting on horse-races as actually conducted.
There appears every day in the newspapers an account of the betting on the principal forthcoming races. The betting on such races as the Two Thousand Guineas, the Derby, and the Oaks, often begins more than a year before the races are run; and during the interval, the odds laid against the different horses engaged in them vary repeatedly, in accordance with the reported progress of the animals in their training, or with what is learned respecting the intentions of their owners. Many who do not bet themselves find an interest in watching the varying fortunes of the horses which are held by the initiated to be leading favorites, or to fall into the second rank, or merely to have an outside chance of success. It is amusing to notice, too, how frequently the final state of the odds is falsified by the event; how some' rank outsider' will
run into the first place, while the leading favorites are not even 'placed.' It is in reality a simple matter to understand the betting on races (or contests of any kind), yet it is astonishing how seldom those who do not actually bet upon races have any inkling of the meaning of those mysterious columns which indicate the opinion of the betting world respecting the probable results of approaching contests, equine or otherwise.
Let us take a few simple cases of 'odds,' to begin with; and, having mastered the elements of our subject, proceed to see how cases of greater complexity are to be dealt with.
Suppose the newspapers inform us that the betting is 2 to I against a certain horse for such and such a race, what inference are we to deduce ? To learn this, let us conceive a case in which the true odds against a certain event are as 2 to 1. Suppose there are three balls in a bag, one being white, the others black. Then, if we draw a ball at random, it is clear that we are twice as likely to draw a black as to draw a white ball. This is technically expressed by saying that the odds are 2 to 1 against drawing a white ball; or 2 to 1 on (that is, in favor of) drawing a black ball. This being understood, it follows that, when the odds are said to be 2 to 1 against a certain horse, we are to infer that, in the opinion of those who have studied the performance of the horse, and compared it with that of the other horses engaged in the race, his chance of
winning is equivalent to the chance of drawing one particular ball out of a bag of three balls.
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