Calculating the Odds : Gambling and Betting to Win

How To Calculate the Odds

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y speculator B, and two stockbrokers respectively R and S:

A has won 501., and paid 53/. 2s. 6d. in brokerage, being therefore only minus 31. 2s. 6d.
B has lost 501., and paid 53/. 2s. 6d., being therefore minus 103/. 2s. 6d.
A's broker B has gained 53/. 2s. 6d. B's broker S has gained 53/. 2s. 6d.

So long as there are many idiotic A's and B's seeking their own ruin by the cover system, one need not necessarily assume that R and S stand appropriately for rascal and swindler. But when stockbrokers choose to join the ranks of those who advertise for clients of this sort, who confidently proclaim that speculation of this kind is a safe and ready way of making a fortune, and


thus ensnare thousands of foolish persons to enter on a path which leads always to loss and often to ruin and shame, they must be prepared to find themselves classed among creatures of prey. They are not the less wrong-doers that at present the law has not forbidden them to prey thus on the weak and foolish. The law should be altered and our goals enlarged.

The defense is made that, if the speculator has good judgment or special information, he will win largely. The same defense has been made for the rascally system by which bookmakers devour the substance of the young and silly. Every man who gambles imagines he is trusting to his judgment, and that he has judgment in which to trust. From the foolish heir of ' noble' or wealthy family to poor stupid 'Array, there is not a turf gambler of the pigeon type who does not think he can form a tolerably shrewd guess as to the chance of every favorite in a race, or that he has information which practically makes him safe to win. Repeated losses may, after a time, teach the sort of wisdom by which a man recognizes his own inexperience; but even this is unusual.

Now, if the tyro cannot really form any idea as to the chances of a horse in a race, if the information to which he trusts is baseless or even misleading, can it be supposed that any, except the most experienced business men, can form a sound opinion about the points on which the ever-changing values of stock depend ? Not one of those who speculate has in reality any sufficient power of judging in such matters at all; for sound business men never speculate. Nor would




the soundest judgment avail in the ease of many kinds of stock, for the values change as the stock is ' pulled ' by hands of whose very existence the ordinary speculator knows nothing.

 

 

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